New Poll: Yes 47% - Strong majority would vote Yes in #indyref if better off

A Strong majority would vote for independence if better off.

Yes Scotland today published findings of a new opinion poll commissioned by the pro-independence campaign and conducted by Panelbase. The poll was sampled among 1,024 people aged 16+ in Scotland, from 4-9 April, which makes it the most recent poll.

The poll finds that Yes only needs another 3 points to get to 50 per cent - and that a strong majority of people would already vote Yes if they believed that they and their families would be better off in an independent Scotland.

Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes: 47% No: 53% (exc dk)
If you & your family would be better off? Likely to Vote Yes 59% Unlikely 41%
This confirms our own research that people are attracted to voting Yes

The findings are:

Q. There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18th of September. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes: 40% - No: 45% - Don’t know: 15%

Excluding “don’t knows”

Yes: 47% - No: 53%

Excluding “don’t knows”, a monthly poll of polls across the different polling organisations showed that Yes support was at 38 per cent on average last November, compared to 62 per cent for No. In April so far - including the Survation poll published in today’s Daily Record - Yes support is running at 46 per cent on average, with No at 54 per cent.

Q. The Yes campaign are deploying a series of arguments about Scotland’s economic strength as an independent country. For example, they point to figures showing that Scotland would be the 14th wealthiest country in terms of economic output per head among the world’s developed economies, compared to the UK”s 18th place. If the Yes campaign could persuade you that you and your family would be economically better off with Scottish independence, in these circumstances, how likely or unlikely would you be to vote Yes for an independent Scotland in September?

Very likely: 34% - Quite likely: 19% - TOTAL LIKELY: 53%

Quite unlikely: 11% - Very unlikely: 26% - TOTAL UNLIKELY: 37%

Don’t know: 10%

Excluding “don’t knows” would mean 59 per cent are likely to vote Yes, with 41 per cent No.

Welcoming the poll, the Chief Executive of Yes Scotland Blair Jenkins said: “These are extremely encouraging findings, which show that the referendum is wide open. On these new figures, Yes just needs a three-point swing to move ahead - and we are very confident of achieving success in September. On the average poll of poll figures, the gap between Yes and No has already closed by two-thirds.

“What is particularly significant is that Yes actually has a strong majority if people think that they and their families would be better off in an independent Scotland - and the official figures show that Scotland would be the 14th richest country in terms of economic output per head, compared to the UK”s 18th place.

“This confirms our own research that people are attracted to voting Yes - and will choose independence when they are persuaded of the strong economic case for Scotland being in control of our own abundant resources.

“Scotland has got what it takes to be a successful independent country - even our opponents in the No campaign accept that. There is absolutely no doubt that we can be independent - and we are working very hard to win the argument that we should and must vote Yes.”

The Yes Scotland monthly poll of polls analysis:


  • Commenting on the latest Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday - which puts support for Yes at 47%, and within touching distance of success on September 18 - Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins said:

    “This is a very encouraging poll and confirms new research by...

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  • The Yes Scotland campaign commissioned a poll by Panelbase, which found the following headline rate of support for independence: Yes: 40% No: 45% Don't know: 15%
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